What’s Actually Disrupting Cross-Border Businesses Right Now: Payoneer Global Business Sentiment Survey, Q2 2026

Ask 8,600+ cross-border businesses what’s reshaping their operations, and you won’t hear “tariffs” first. Geopolitics and AI-driven technology shifts are at the top the list. But the story gets more complex—and regional—from there. 

Who we surveyed 

The majority of businesses we surveyed are microbusinesses (1-10 employees), small businesses (10-49 employees), freelancers, and sole-proprietors. 

Countries we surveyed include China, Ukraine, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, the U.S., UAE, Pakistan, India, the Philippines, the UK, Argentina, Turkey, Israel, Mexico, Colombia, Malaysia, Ethiopia, Kenya and Thailand.

The headlines 

Most businesses aren’t disrupted. But those that are, feel it sharply 

Nearly half of businesses surveyed (45%), report no significant disruption over the last six months. Among the 55% who report being impacted, here’s what we found: 

• Geopolitical conflict and AI and technology change are the leading drivers, each affecting about 14% of businesses 
• Tariffs affect about 7-8%, but growing, especially among China-based B2C goods sellers from China and other Asia export hubs 

Tariffs are rising as a concern—but unevenly  

While tariffs rank fifth overall (after AI, geopolitical shifts, FX rate volatility, and interest rate changes), the trend is worth watching. Concern grew from 6% in March to 8% in April. And among goods sellers specifically, the jump was sharper: from about 11% to 18% over the same period. 

Geography matters—a lot 

The global averages mask huge regional differences. Some markets are far more disrupted than others, and by different factors: 

Highest disruption: Vietnam (74%), China (69%), Ukraine (68%), Japan (67%), South Korea (68%) 

Lowest: US (43%), UAE (44%) 

China’s disruption is FX-driven. South Korean businesses are also mainly disrupted by currency exchange volatility—the highest FX concern of any market in the survey—while Vietnam’s disruption is tariff-driven. One-size-fits-all advice therefore doesn’t necessarily work across cross-border businesses everywhere. 

“As we continue to expand into overseas markets, our business is facing more diverse challenges and opportunities. Different countries have different policies, industry environments, and marketplace dynamics, and these changes directly affect how we operate, grow, and manage our cross-border business. For us, Payoneer is not just a payment service provider that helps us collect and make payments. More importantly, Payoneer understands the realities of cross-border sellers, the complexity of global marketplaces, and the uncertainties we face in different markets. This makes Payoneer a trusted partner that supports our business as we grow internationally.” — CKPSMS, Sewing machine accessories. Operating across the UK, Hong Kong, and China; serving US and European markets. Scaled from B2B to B2C while expanding across multiple channels. 

Case study: Japan’s paradox  

Japan presents a striking contradiction. Japanese businesses cite tariff concerns more than any other market (about 26%), yet only 16% of disrupted businesses have actually made or are planning changes. Compare that to the global average of 44–48% taking action (more on that below). 

The gap doesn’t reflect indifference. Japan is in the middle of an unusual economic moment—rising bond yields, returning inflation, yen volatility—that makes the path forward unclear. Awareness of these issues is high. Conviction about what to do? Not as clear yet. 

What are disrupted businesses actually doing? 

Among businesses feeling the impact, here’s where they’re focusing effort:  

• Supply chain reliability and sourcing 
• Customer demand diversification 
• Production cost reduction 
• Hiring and staffing strategy reviews  

Across all these areas, 44%-48% of affected businesses have either acted or are actively planning to. That’s notable—disrupted businesses aren’t waiting around or hoping things improve. They’re actively adapting. However, about 25% across all areas aren’t sharing their response plans just yet.  

The bottom line 

The cross-border business environment is divided. Half of businesses are reporting no major disruption. The other half are adapting actively, and their top concerns aren’t what the headlines emphasize. Geopolitics and AI are reshaping the industry faster than tariffs.  

The advice that works in Vietnam won’t work in Japan, and what matters for a China exporter may not matter for a freelancer in the US.  

If you’re a cross-border business operator: stay alert to what’s actually affecting your specific market and business type. 

How we did this 

This survey covers 8,626 businesses on the Payoneer platform, conducted across three waves from March to May 2026. Respondents reported their experiences over the prior six months. All findings are reported with 95% confidence. Regional comparisons are shown only where differences are statistically significant.  

Note: The percentages reflected throughout this post do not reflect financial performance but rather the subject most often cited by respondents.